Basic Forex Trading Strategy

April 8, 2018 at 8:34 am

The trading strategy a forex trader chooses can be a defining tool for the future positive performance. This material had been designed for beginning forex traders that are searching for an effective trading strategy. What we need to mention from the start is that this strategy, like any other one, should be tested first. Forex trading demo account is a must, especially if you are at the beginning and you need to develop those skills required for you to generate consistent returns.

So, without further a due, let’s jump into the actual strategy that we want to talk about.

False breakout trading strategy

False breakouts happen many times in the forex markets, simply because support and resistance levels are not like a line in the sand. They are actually several layers deep and you will usually find the market breaking a certain support/resistance only to resume impulsively in the opposite direction.

This could be a great opportunity for you, but you need to learn how to do it. First, we must mention that this strategy should only be used for with trend trading. Do not even apply it for counter-trend trading.

Let’s show an actual example, so you could understand the strategy better.

Source:dailyfx.com

Above you can see the EURUSD chart on the 4h time frame. Since the beginning of 2018, the pair had a good performance, following around 13% gain in 2017.

We’ve drawn on the chart the 1.1941 level, which was a key support level. As you can see, the sellers managed to break it in the first place. Considering that the selling leg down was pretty impulsive, some of the traders might have assumed that the market will continue lower. The exact opposite happened and the price surged impulsively on the upside.

Let us know explain the basic rules of the system:

  • First, find the dominant direction of the market (the context)
  • Look for a key support/resistance level to which the market had responded in the past
  • Wait until that particular level had been broken on the other side of the dominant direction of the market.
  • For conservative traders, you can wait until the dominant side resumes and breaks again the level and tests it.

You can place stop loss below/above the false break formation, and target at least 2 or 3 times the stop loss value. This kind of setup had a good accuracy and over time it can be very effective.

As we’ve already mentioned, don’t forget the forex trading on demo account before you actually trade live, with your own money.

Risk Disclaimer
Foreign exchange trading carries high risk and may not be suitable for everyone. You should carefully consider before deciding to invest in speculative assets. No information contained in this article should be regarded as a decision to buy a certain asset.

 

The Canadian Dollar is Poised for Further Weakness

April 4, 2018 at 5:42 am

The Canadian Dollar has been trading under pressure as tariffs could weigh on the currency. The Bank of Canada delivered the widely expected lack of change, leaving the setting for the overnight rate at 1.25%. While higher rates over time remain implied by their economic outlook, they repeated that they will be cautious in considering future policy adjustments. Their views on recent developments were largely balanced, but with a notable mention of the growing uncertainty to Canada’s outlook posed by trade policy. The markets projection is for two more rate increases this year, in July and October, leaving a 1.75% setting by year-end.

The crucial final paragraph of the announcement was little changed relative to January. The repeat of “further rate hikes likely but guided by data and implemented with caution” is a place-holder as they observe the evolution of trade policy, wages, housing and GDP.

The Bank of Canada expects GDP growth of 3% in 2017 in-line with the Bank’s projection in the January monetary policy report. Yet that was largely due to higher imports, which mainly reflected stronger business investment. The key for policy going forward is the evolution of GDP and inflation relative to their projections. But uncertainty remains elevated, including the tariff plans from the White House in the United States making for a policy outlook that is written in very light pencil.

The March announcement revealed little change in the cautious, data dependent Bank of Canada. Hence, they should be able to hold policy steady until past mid-year, providing ample time to access the impact of NAFTA and possible U.S. tariffs on trade and investment. The long-anticipated rotation to export and business investment from household spending and housing is moving along in fits and starts. Of course, household spending did slow in Q4, which is something the Bank has been eying for some time. The announcement assured that they are continuing to monitor the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates, noting that household credit growth has decelerated for three consecutive months.

Three Rate Hikes in 2018

The Bank of Canada is expected to move again in July, lifting rates 25 basis point to 1.50%. Another 25-basis point rate hike is penciled in for October to leave a 1.75% rate that should close out the year. But the risk is intensifying that the economy faces fresh headwinds from trade and housing this year. Of course, an expanding U.S. economy would provide a strong tailwind for Canada, if trade protectionism does not weaken the link between the two nations. In other words, uncertainty clouds the outlook, leaving a gradual and cautious course ahead as the most sensible policy path for the Bank of Canada this year.

Canada housing starts improved

Canada housing starts improved to a 229.7k unit pace in February from a revised 215.3k growth rate in January. Currency trading of the Canadian Dollar saw the Loonie remain stable. The pick-up in starts was contrary to expectations for a mild dip and comes amid general softness in sales and prices so far this year as new mortgage rules and other measures pulled-activity ahead to late 2017. Starts saw a 6-month average of 225.3k in February versus 224.6k in January, maintain a steady growth rate since November of last year. Single detached starts fell 9.8% to a 56.7k rate in February while multiple urban starts jumped 15% to 154.5k in February. By region, starts improved in Toronto and Vancouver, with a record number of apartment starts featuring in Toronto.

Canadian Dollar

 

Oct. 31 Forex signals results: +95 pips profit

November 2, 2017 at 8:49 am

Our GBPUSD buy signal made +95 pips profit:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 31, 2017 at 8:50 AM
Subject: Oct. 31
To: 
GBPUSD Buy 1.3224 SL 1.3189 P1= 1.3244 P2= 1.3274

This signal reached both profit targets. The stop-loss order for the remaining 3rd unit had been upgraded and later triggered at 1.3249 for the total profit of +95 pips.

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 31, 2017 at 11:28 PM
Subject: GBPUSD SL 1.3249
To: 

On the chart this trade looked like this:

best forex signals oct31

Tu., Oct. 31 Forex signal: buy GBPUSD

October 31, 2017 at 10:01 am

We sent out the following Forex signal today:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 31, 2017 at 8:50 AM
Subject: Oct. 31
To: 
GBPUSD Buy 1.3224 SL 1.3189 P1= 1.3244 P2= 1.3274

So far, this signal has reached its first profit target making +20 pips profit. Now we updated stop-loss orders to the break even price:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 31, 2017 at 9:07 AM
Subject: GBPUSD P1 reaches, SL BE
To: 

Mo., Oct. 30 Forex signal: short USDJPY

October 30, 2017 at 9:27 am

We sent out the signal to short USDJPY today:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Oct 30, 2017 at 9:12 AM
Subject: New order
To: 
USDJPY Sell 113.49 SL 113.70 P1= 113.26 P2= 113.12

Later we updated the stop-loss to 113.55:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, Oct 30, 2017 at 9:20 AM
Subject: USDJPY SL 113.55
To: 

 

Oct. 28 End of week Forex signals results: +227 pips profit

October 29, 2017 at 7:50 pm

This week our signals made the total profit of +227 pips.

Wd., Oct. 25 Forex signals results: +167 pips profit

October 25, 2017 at 11:34 am

Our last unit from the USDCAD long trade opened on Friday hit the trailing stop today at 1.2668 for the total profit of 167 pips.

The original signal sent out was:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 8:26 AM
Subject: New order
To: 
USDCAD Buy 1.2501 SL 1.2479 P1= 1.2521 P2= 1.2541

The trailing stop-loss order for the last unit had been updated this morning. This stop got triggered by the wild down-swing on the news bringing in a net profit of +167 pips. On the chart this trade looked as shown below:

best forex signals oct25

Tu., Oct. 24 Forex signal result: +60 pips profit

October 25, 2017 at 9:25 am

Our GPBUSD signal made +60 pips profit

As we explained in the previous post, the original signal sent out was:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 8:34 AM
Subject: Oct. 24
To: 
GBPUSD Sell 1.3155 SL 1.3230 P1= 1.3125 P2= 1.3105

This signal reached its first profit target and the stop-loss orders for the remaining 2 units were updated and triggered at 1.3140:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 4:31 PM
Subject: GBPUSD SL 1.3140
To: 

Therefore the total result for this Forex signal is +60 pips profit. On the chart this trade looked as shown below:

best forex signals oct24

Mo.-Tu., Oct. 23-24 Forex signals results +30 pips profit so far

October 24, 2017 at 1:42 pm

Our signal was not triggered yesterday. This morning we sent out the following Forex signal:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 8:34 AM
Subject: Oct. 24
To: 
GBPUSD Sell 1.3155 SL 1.3230 P1= 1.3125 P2= 1.3105

So far this signal has reached its first profit target and made +30 pips of profit. Two more units are still open with stop-loss orders at the break even price (see our trade update email below):

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 10:53 AM
Subject: GBPUSD P1 reached SL BE
To: 

Fr., Oct. 20 Forex signals results: +60 pips so far

October 22, 2017 at 5:09 pm

Our today’s Forex signal made +60 pips profit and one unit is still open with the stop-loss at additional +98 pips of profit.

The actual Forex signal sent out was this:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 8:26 AM
Subject: New order
To: 
USDCAD Buy 1.2501 SL 1.2479 P1= 1.2521 P2= 1.2541

Later we sent out the following updates:

From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 8:32 AM
Subject: USDCAD P1 & P2 reached, SL 1.2539
To:

 


From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 8:34 AM
Subject: USDCAD SL 1.2549
To:

 


From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 10:24 AM
Subject: USDCAD SL 1.2579
To:

 


From: Dave Hughe <plainfx@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Oct 20, 2017 at 1:35 PM
Subject: USDCAD SL 1.2599
To:

On the chart this trade looked like this:

best-forex-signals-oct20