April 25, 2014 at 5:51 pm
Just another short slow week after the long weekend. The result is +66 pips of profit and we are holding AUDUSD over the weekend. The up to date results since the start of this blog are as follows:
Week 1: +231 pips
Week 2: – 19 pips
Week 3: +415 pips
Week 4: +366 pips
Week 5: +137 pips
Week 6: +150 pips
Week 7: + 20 pips
Week 8: +155 pips
Week 9: + 23 pips
Week 10: – 149 pips
Week 11: +465 pips
Week 12: +126 pips
Week 13: + 50 pips
Week 14: +306 pips
Week 15: +201 pips
Week 16: + 11 pips
Week 17: +325 pips
Week 18: + 80 pips
Week 19: – 133 pips
Week 20:+ 380 pips
Week 21: – 32 pips
Week 22: + 66 pips
Total: +3,174 pips
April 24, 2014 at 9:21 am
The AUDUSD short position opened on Apr. 17 (see the original post) reached its first profit target for a +66 pips of profit. The stop-loss orders for the remaining 2 units are moved to their break even points now.
April 24, 2014 at 9:05 am
This morning there were two signals. The GBPUSD news trade was cancelled due to the lack of action. The AUDUSD short position is open.
April 24, 2014 at 8:58 am
There were no trades on Tuesday. The USDCAD position got closed at break even point. See the chart below:
April 23, 2014 at 2:08 am
The AUDUSD dropped like a stone on the lower than expected CPI number. The pair broke through the support line and made a new low on a daily chart falling below the psychologically important resistance at 0.9300. It might take time to break through that number though.
Our short-position position opened on Apr. 17 is in the money now (see that post here: Th., Apr. 17. The first profit target is just above the daily 200MA at 0.9262.
April 23, 2014 at 12:30 am
Today there were 2 signals issued (see below). Later on the USDJPY signal was cancelled. The USDCAD position was open but it went nowhere and will be held overnight.
April 20, 2014 at 5:50 pm
Answer by Dave Hughe:
All the talk about 50/50 odds in the stock market or any other financial market for that matter is simply NOT TRUE. Just the same as calling the stock market a zero-sum game.
The broker's commissions and other charges shift the odds against the trader. Yes, your chances of correctly guessing the direction of the price move are 50/50 but you have to pay commissions on the way in the trade and on the way out. These commissions will eat part of your profits when you win and add to your losses when you lose.
Therefore, if you will be right 50% of the time and your average win will equal your average loss, you will still lose money. How is that for a 50/50 chance?
As for the difference between gambling in a casino and trading, there is not much considering the fact that the odds are stack against you in both cases.
The difference lies in the approach. If you calculate your risks and shift the odds of winning in your favor, you can win on average in both endeavors.
There are people who consistently beat casinos and there are traders who consistently make profits in financial markets.
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April 20, 2014 at 5:11 pm
Answer by Dave Hughe:
He explained it himself in the book: he did not follow his own rules. This is exactly why so many people blow their accounts in Forex.
I used to be fascinated with Jesse Livermore but later on I realized that he had a gambling personality. Nevertheless, his advice is as sound today as it was back then.
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April 20, 2014 at 5:09 pm
Answer by Dave Hughe:
The major part of investing and trading is money management. If you don't mind losing all your money and even more if you trade on margin, then you don't need stop loss orders.
On the other hand, if you want to control your risk, stop loss orders are a must.
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April 20, 2014 at 5:08 pm
Answer by Dave Hughe:
Fibonacci lines and pivot points are in favour because they work.
Why they work that's a different question, to which there is no straight answer. But isn't that amazing to see how price touches a Fibonacci or a pivot line and reverses its course?
Personally, I use FIbonacci lines and pivots to set profit targets. On many occasions they enabled me to take profits just 1-2 pips away from the reversal point.
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